De la croissance économique à l’influence politique sur la scène internationale (le président Kassym-Jomart Tokayev s’est entretenu avec le secrétaire général des Nations unies, António Guterres, il y a quelques jours), le Kazakhstan apparaît de plus en plus comme une nouvelle puissance.
Récemment, le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) a déclaré que le Kazakhstan était devenu le leader régional en termes de produit intérieur brut (PIB) par habitant, dépassant à la fois la Russie et la Chine. Dans ses perspectives actualisées, le FMI prévoit une croissance de 3 % en 2025.
Les données du FMI montrent qu’en 2025, le PIB par habitant du Kazakhstan atteindra 14 770 dollars, contre 14 260 dollars pour la Russie et 13 690 dollars pour la Chine. En Asie centrale, le Turkménistan suit avec 13 340 dollars, tandis que l’Ouzbékistan affiche 3 510 dollars, le Kirghizistan 2 750 dollars et le Tadjikistan 1 430 dollars.
Le Kazakhstan est également en tête des membres de la Communauté des États indépendants (CEI), devant la Géorgie (9 570 dollars) et l’Arménie (8 860 dollars), selon un article écrit par Pokidaev, D. (2025, 15 août) pour Times.ca.
Le FMI a également noté une faible inflation grâce aux politiques de la Banque nationale et du gouvernement visant à maintenir la stabilité. Un taux de change stable du tenge et un budget équilibré sont observés. À ce sujet, Aisultan a écrit pour Kazinform :
“Le pays maintient également une stabilité macroéconomique relativement forte, qui se traduit par une faible inflation, une monnaie nationale stable (le tenge) et un budget équilibré. Les politiques de la Banque nationale et du gouvernement ont contribué à maintenir la résilience économique, même face aux défis mondiaux.”
Le Kazakhstan, un leader dans de multiples secteurs
Le Kazakhstan est également en train de devenir un leader dans les domaines du transport, de la logistique, des crypto-monnaies, du tourisme, de la technologie, de l’éducation, des soins de santé, de l’intelligence artificielle et des services sociaux. Le secteur réel a progressé de 8 %, avec les transports et la construction en tête. Les infrastructures de transport ont augmenté de 22,7 %, alimentées par un pic de 35,2 % des exportations de céréales et de farine (11,8 millions de tonnes), selon l’article de Stone, N. (2025, 12 mai) pour Aivenst. Avec 35 milliards de dollars alloués aux infrastructures, le Kazakhstan se positionne comme une plaque tournante du transit eurasiatique, écrit Stone (2025, 12 mai).
Les volumes de fret du corridor médian devraient doubler d’ici 2027, offrant des opportunités d’expansion portuaire, de ports secs et de logistique ferroviaire.
Comprendre la croissance économique du Kazakhstan
Cette grande réussite et ces excellentes performances sont principalement dues à ses vastes ressources minérales, à ses exportations d’énergie et de minéraux, à la transformation des matières premières et à la production de biens à forte valeur ajoutée. Le Kazakhstan a la capacité de tirer parti de ses ressources naturelles tout en s’orientant vers des industries à plus forte valeur ajoutée. Cela stimule la croissance, sans parler de l’augmentation des investissements étrangers et de la modernisation des infrastructures, selon Astana Times. L’UE est le principal investisseur étranger dans le pays. En outre, l’Union européenne est le plus grand partenaire commercial du Kazakhstan, avec des données pour 2023 qui la placent comme la destination de 37 % du total des exportations kazakhes et représentant 27,9 % de son commerce total cette année-là, selon Euractiv. L’ancien vice-ministre des Affaires étrangères Roman Vassilenko (aujourd’hui ambassadeur du Kazakhstan à Bruxelles) a déclaré que le chiffre d’affaires commercial entre le Kazakhstan et le bloc de l’UE avait atteint 44,2 milliards de dollars pour la période allant de janvier à novembre 2024, marquant une croissance de 17,7 % par rapport à la même période en 2023.
Il convient également de rappeler que le pays est riche et possède certaines des plus grandes réserves mondiales de pétrole, de gaz, d’uranium et d’autres minéraux. C’est pourquoi il est un partenaire privilégié de nombreux pays de l’Union européenne, dont la France. Les exportations de ressources énergétiques et de matières premières restent un moteur essentiel de l’économie. Ces dernières années, le Kazakhstan s’est efforcé de diversifier ses exportations en développant des industries de transformation et en augmentant la part des produits à haute valeur ajoutée. Le président Kassym-Jomart Tokayev a réaffirmé que la diversification de l’économie était une priorité pour 2025. La diversification de l’économie kazakhe rapprochera l’UE et le Kazakhstan. À ce sujet, Zajmi, X. (2025, 16 mai) a écrit :
“La stratégie de diversification économique du Kazakhstan place le marché de l’UE au premier plan.
En effet, le Kazakhstan diversifie activement son économie en se concentrant sur la transformation en profondeur des matières premières, ce qui a entraîné une croissance de 6,1 % dans le secteur manufacturier de janvier à juillet. Au cours du premier semestre 2025, les secteurs non pétroliers du Kazakhstan ont enregistré une croissance stupéfiante de 6,3 % du PIB, ce qui représente l’expansion la plus rapide depuis 14 ans.
Le gouvernement a mené des réformes cohérentes visant à améliorer le climat des affaires, à attirer les investissements étrangers et à développer les infrastructures. Le Kazakhstan est une destination très attrayante pour les investisseurs étrangers, car le gouvernement et le pays leur inspirent confiance. En outre, les programmes de l’État ont permis de moderniser l’économie et de renforcer sa compétitivité, tandis que les investissements dans des secteurs tels que les transports, la logistique et la technologie ont joué un rôle important, selon Kazinform.
Les dépenses consacrées à l’éducation, aux soins de santé et aux infrastructures sociales ont permis d’améliorer le niveau de vie, ce qui, à son tour, a soutenu la croissance de la productivité et élargi le marché intérieur de la consommation, a écrit Aisultan pour Kazinform. Il convient également de souligner que les efforts de diversification économique du Kazakhstan et l’accent mis sur la transformation numérique ouvrent de nouvelles voies de croissance, en particulier dans les services financiers et le commerce, selon David Livingstone, Chief Client Officer de Citi, dans une interview pour Astana Times.
Compte tenu de l’intérêt croissant des grandes puissances pour la région, il va sans dire que le pays connaîtra une croissance exponentielle. La position stratégique du Kazakhstan en Asie centrale en fait un lien vital entre l’Europe et l’Asie, ainsi qu’entre la Russie et l’Inde. De plus, sa participation à des initiatives telles que la Ceinture et la Route, ainsi que sa coopération active avec la Russie, la Chine, l’Union européenne et d’autres partenaires, ont élargi les opportunités économiques du pays. La diversification économique, la numérisation et l’afflux massif d’investissements étrangers orientent le pays vers une croissance non pétrolière, ce qui lui confère également un fort potentiel de croissance verte.
La politique multisectorielle du Kazakhstan en fait un pays exemplaire en matière de politique internationale, ce qui porte également ses fruits dans l’économie du pays.
BIBLIOGRAPHIE
Aisultan, A. (2025, 15 août). Données du FMI : Kazakhstan leads post-Soviet states in GDP per capita. Agence de presse Kazinform. https://qazinform.com/news/imf-data-kazakhstan-leads-post-soviet-states-in-gdp-per-capita-b9b559
Gasimov, A. (2023, 31 décembre). Kazakhstan leads among Central Asian countries in GDP growth (Le Kazakhstan est le premier pays d’Asie centrale en termes de croissance du PIB). Trend News Agency. https://www.trend.az/business/economy/4080261.html
Haidar, A. (2025, 15 août). Citi : Kazakhstan’s digital drive, trade ambitions set stage for financial hub aspirations. The Astana Times. https://astanatimes.com/2025/08/citi-kazakhstans-digital-drive-trade-ambitions-set-stage-for-financial-hub-aspirations/
Omirgazy, D. (2025, 15 août). FMI : Le Kazakhstan atteint le PIB par habitant le plus élevé de la région. The Astana Times. https://astanatimes.com/2025/08/imf-kazakhstan-achieves-highest-gdp-per-capita-in-region/
Pokidaev, D. (2025, 15 août). Kazakhstan to top Central Asia in GDP per capita, surpassant la Russie et la Chine. The Times of Central Asia. https://timesca.com/kazakhstan-tops-central-asia-in-gdp-per-capita-surpassing-russia-and-china/
Stone, N. (2025, 12 mai). L’essor économique du Kazakhstan : Une croissance du PIB de 6 % stimulée par des secteurs clés. AInvest. https://www.ainvest.com/news/kazakhstan-economic-surge-6-gdp-growth-spurred-key-sectors-2505/
Zajmi, X. (2025, 16 mai). Kazakhstan’s economic diversification strategy has EU market front and centre (La stratégie de diversification économique du Kazakhstan place le marché de l’UE au premier plan). Euractiv. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/kazakhstans-economic-diversification-strategy-has-eu-market-front-and-centre/
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