La prochaine phase de l’histoire du Bangladesh a commencé la semaine dernière avec l’élection écrasante du Parti nationaliste du Bangladesh. Après sa victoire, le Premier ministre Tarique Rahman a déclaré que son gouvernement s’attacherait à redresser “une économie fragile en proie à des institutions affaiblies et à une détérioration de la loi et de l’ordre”.
La reconnaissance par M. Rahman de la situation économique et de l’absence de loi et d’ordre était, à première vue, un clin d’œil aux frustrations qui ont motivé les manifestations de juillet 2024. Mais pour les observateurs attentifs, il s’agissait également d’une reconnaissance tacite de l’échec du gouvernement intérimaire depuis 18 mois.
Bien qu’il ait affirmé être parvenu à une “stabilisation“ économique qui a conduit à un “rééquilibrage structurel” des principaux piliers économiques, le gouvernement intérimaire a largement poursuivi une campagne de représailles ciblées – apparemment sans tenir compte de l’État de droit – contre les entreprises et leurs propriétaires, sapant ainsi la confiance de l’industrie.
Au cours du mandat du gouvernement intérimaire, des conglomérats d’entreprises tels que Summit Group, Alam Group, Gemcon Group, S Alam Group, Nassa Group, Orion Group, Nabil Group et d’autres ont été la cible d’allégations de malversations. Trois jours seulement après l’élection, l’homme d’affaires singapourien Muhammed Aziz Khan, président du Summit Group, a vu ses avoirs au Bangladesh gelés à la suite d’allégations selon lesquelles le groupe aurait bénéficié d'”exemptions sur les revenus des projets”.
M. Rahman doit maintenant faire face à cette situation héritée du passé, dans laquelle la répression des entreprises visait celles qui étaient “perçues comme étant liées à l’administration Hasina”, et distinguer la réalité de la fiction. L’absence d’appropriation et de transparence sur les lacunes du gouvernement intérimaire ne fera que compliquer la tâche du BNP et de M. Rahman pour faire face à la réalité économique du pays.
Et quelle est cette réalité ? L’inflation est restée à un niveau élevé et persistant, atteignant 8,58 % en janvier, le coût des produits de base augmentant de 0,6 %. La baisse de la croissance du crédit privé, qui dure depuissept mois , a entraîné l’assèchement des prêts et le blocage des investissements économiques dans un contexte d’incertitude persistante. Le secteur de la confection, mis à mal par les droits de douane américains et le gouvernement intérimaire, a été exceptionnellement lent à réagir, laissant la main-d’œuvre, majoritairement féminine, extrêmement vulnérable. Au niveau international, les relations avec des entités économiques clés telles que le FMI et la Banque mondiale ont été extrêmement tendues, entraînant des retards dans le déblocage de fonds cruciaux du FMI.
Entre-temps, les grandes visions de la réforme économique que le gouverneur de la Banque du Bangladesh, Ahsan Mansur, a tenté de faire passer en force n’ont, heureusement, abouti à rien. Les décisions relatives à l’indépendance de la banque centrale ont été bloquées à juste titre.
L’ordonnance de la Banque du Bangladesh proposait une réorientation fondamentale de la banque centrale et tout changement de ce type doit être pleinement pris en compte par un parlement dûment élu. Mais la réticence du gouvernement intérimaire à approuver l’ordonnance n’a pas été prise à la légère par les membres de la banque, qui ont organisé une manifestation appelant à la démission du ministre des finances. Il est révélateur qu’au lieu d’afficher une note d’espoir et d’unité dans les derniers jours de leur mandat, les responsables de l’avenir économique du pays se soient affrontés dans la presse pour tenter de conserver leur influence.
Pour ceux qui ne sont pas en position d’influence ou de pouvoir, les derniers jours du gouvernement intérimaire ne laissent que peu de solutions aux problèmes sous-jacents qui ont conduit aux manifestations de juillet. Les inégalités restent profondément ancrées, le clientélisme est resté impuni et les voix des femmes et des étudiants qui ont été à l’avant-garde des manifestations ont été pratiquement réduites au silence. En fin de compte, le mandat du gouvernement intérimaire à la tête du Bangladesh pourrait bien laisser plus de questions que de réponses.
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