De tous les débats politiques dans lesquels les travaillistes se sont empêtrés depuis leur arrivée au gouvernement, la réforme de la protection sociale est l’un de ceux qui continueront à faire parler d’eux jusqu’à ce qu’on s’y attaque directement. La question qui se posera toujours à l’issue de ces conversations est de savoir qui aura le courage de s’y attaquer.
La détérioration lente de la situation budgétaire et l’augmentation rapide des emprunts publics ont placé notre système actuel d’aide sociale et d’allocations sous la loupe. Les derniers chiffres de l’Office des statistiques nationales montrent que les emprunts pour l’exercice clos en novembre 2025 ont augmenté de 8,2 % par rapport à la même période de l’année précédente. Les 132,3 milliards de livres sterling empruntés au cours de cette période de huit mois constituent le deuxième chiffre le plus élevé jamais enregistré, juste derrière le pic de la pandémie de grippe aviaire de 19 ans en 2020. L’explosion des dépenses publiques a poussé le gouvernement dans ses derniers retranchements et de nombreuses personnes se tournent vers l’endettement pour financer les dépenses quotidiennes, l’ONS soulignant que l’augmentation des prestations sociales est l’un des principaux facteurs d’accroissement des coûts.
Cela n’a rien de surprenant, compte tenu des chiffres qui ont été publiés sur l’ampleur de l’aide sociale qui devrait creuser les caisses de l’État d’ici à la fin de la décennie. La facture des prestations sociales devrait atteindre un total de 324 milliards de livres sterling en 2025-26, soit une augmentation substantielle de 44 milliards de livres sterling par rapport à 2019-20, en raison à la fois de la pression à la hausse exercée par le triple verrouillage de la pension d’État et de l’augmentation du nombre de demandeurs. Une personne sur dix en âge de travailler demande aujourd’hui une indemnité de maladie ou d’invalidité, et le nombre de bénéficiaires de l’allocation personnalisée d’autonomie devrait passer de 2 millions à 4,3 millions d’ici à la fin de la décennie. Il ne s’agit pas d’un problème qui se résorbera de lui-même avec le temps.
Si l’on ne s’y attaque pas, notre système actuel de protection sociale et d’allocations va pousser les dépenses publiques au-delà de tout semblant de viabilité. Pourtant, au lieu d’agir, les travaillistes s’enlisent dans le poids de leurs propres divisions idéologiques internes et dans le bagage politique des réformes passées menées par le parti. Dans l’état actuel des choses, l’aide sociale est devenue un moyen de marquer des points plutôt que de résoudre des problèmes.
Les voix qui se sont distinguées dans les discussions passées sur cette question sont celles qui ont fait preuve d’un sens du leadership fort et qui n’ont pas eu peur de s’attaquer aux problèmes flagrants du système. Le regretté Frank Field, considéré comme un franc-tireur dans ce domaine, s’est engagé jusqu’à sa mort à dépasser les clivages idéologiques afin de réaliser de réels progrès dans le domaine de l’État-providence.
Il a lancé des campagnes avec des députés conservateurs pour lutter contre la pauvreté, mettant constamment en garde contre la “dépendance aux prestations” et contre l’approche économiquement non viable consistant à soutenir un nombre important de personnes bénéficiant de prestations sociales, et plaidant au contraire pour des réformes favorisant l’autosuffisance et encourageant les incitations au travail. Tony Blair l’a invité à “penser l’impensable” à propos de la réforme de la protection sociale, ce qui a incité Field à rétablir le principe de contribution en plus de la pension de base de l’État, ce qui a suscité l’admiration des experts du secteur, mais a été jugé insondable par le gouvernement.
Parmi les voix plus contemporaines qui s’élèvent dans le débat sur la protection sociale, citons le Centre pour la justice sociale et les anciens dirigeants conservateurs Iain Duncan Smith MP et Patrick Spencer MP, tous deux critiques virulents des progrès hésitants des travaillistes en matière de réforme et partisansd’un leadership politique fort pour sortir de l’impasse. Lorsqu’il était secrétaire d’État au travail et aux pensions, de 2010 à 2016, M. Duncan Smith a dirigé le plus important programme de réforme de la protection sociale de ce siècle, qui a vu l’introduction du crédit universel, du programme de travail et de la pension à taux unique. Ses décisions ont pu être controversées, mais elles étaient le fait d’une personne qui n’avait pas peur de s’attaquer aux problèmes flagrants du système et de peser de tout son poids pour les faire évoluer.
Le cabinet travailliste compte-t-il de telles personnalités dans ses rangs ? Wes Streeting dirige le NHS dans le cadre de son audacieux plan décennal pour la santé, qui vise à transformer la manière dont les soins de santé sont dispensés dans tout le pays. Shabana Mahmood est à l’origine de réformes tout aussi ambitieuses du système d’asile britannique. Cependant, Streeting et Mahmood travaillent tous deux sur un terrain actuellement plus sûr, compte tenu de l’importance historique du NHS pour les électeurs et des discussions contemporaines sur l’immigration menées par la réforme. La réforme de la protection sociale, en revanche, s’est toujours révélée être une question à long terme qui ne tient pas compte des intérêts de la démocratie moderne.
Les dépenses sociales atteindront un point critique au cours de cette décennie, et les répercussions sur les finances publiques seront désastreuses. Les travaillistes feraient bien de suivre les conseils de Field et de Duncan Smith, qu’il s’agisse de “penser l’impensable” ou d’éliminer les hésitations politiques qui les empêchent d’opérer des changements efficaces. La réforme de la protection sociale a besoin d’un leader, et il est dans l’intérêt du parti travailliste d’en trouver un rapidement.
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