Le Kazakhstan est devenu l’une des principales destinations d’investissement en Asie du Nord et en Asie centrale, attirant 15,7 milliards de dollars de nouveaux projets, selon le dernier rapport de la Commission économique et sociale des Nations unies pour l’Asie et le Pacifique (CESAP) publié le 25 décembre. Ce chiffre représente une augmentation de 88 % d’une année sur l’autre, soit 63 % de l’ensemble des investissements dans la région.
Le Kazakhstan, leader de la sous-région
Les flux d’investissement vers l’Asie du Nord et l’Asie centrale ont augmenté de 27 % pour atteindre 24,8 milliards de dollars en 2023.
“La croissance du Kazakhstan lui permet désormais d’attirer 63 % du total des IDE de la région jusqu’en 2024, grâce à des investissements totalisant 11 milliards de dollars de l’UCC Holding du Qatar pour établir deux usines de traitement du gaz, une nouvelle station de compression et deux gazoducs supplémentaires à travers le pays”, peut-on lire dans le rapport.
QazaqGas, la compagnie nationale de gaz, et la holding UCC du Qatar ont signé des accords clés lors de la visite du président Kassym-Jomart Tokayev au Qatar. Parmi ces projets figurent deux usines de traitement du gaz d’une capacité d’un milliard et de 2,5 milliards de mètres cubes par an afin d’améliorer l’utilisation du gaz brut, une nouvelle station de compression, le gazoduc Aktobe-Kostanai et la deuxième ligne du gazoduc Beineu-Bozoi-Shymkent.
“Dans ce contexte, la promotion proactive des investissements par les ministères de tutelle et les agences de promotion des investissements (API) devient de plus en plus cruciale, en particulier dans les secteurs contribuant au développement durable. Pour les destinations d’investissement émergentes, le succès dépend non seulement de la création d’un environnement politique adéquat, mais aussi de l’offre aux investisseurs d’une gamme complète de services de soutien et de suivi”, peut-on lire dans le rapport.
Tendances en Asie du Nord et en Asie centrale
L’Ouzbékistan (4 milliards de dollars), la République kirghize (2,1 milliards de dollars), l’Azerbaïdjan (1,2 milliard de dollars), le Turkménistan (339 millions de dollars), la Géorgie (126 millions de dollars) et l’Arménie (67 millions de dollars) sont d’autres pays qui affichent de solides tendances en matière d’investissement.
Les investissements sortants de la sous-région ont diminué en 2024, après une reprise en 2023. Le rapport indique que les sorties totales ont chuté de 58 % pour atteindre 2,3 milliards de dollars. La Russie représente 90 % de ce montant, soit 2,1 milliards de dollars. Les investisseurs russes ont investi 847 millions de dollars dans les secteurs du charbon, du pétrole et du gaz en Inde et en Biélorussie.
Modèles d’investissement en Asie-Pacifique
L’IDE dans la région Asie-Pacifique a atteint 292 milliards de dollars de janvier à septembre de cette année, soit une baisse de 14 milliards de dollars par rapport aux 339 milliards de dollars enregistrés au cours de la même période en 2023. Les principaux bénéficiaires ont été l’Inde (76 milliards de dollars), l’Australie (38 milliards de dollars), la Chine (28 milliards de dollars) et le Japon (25 milliards de dollars), dont les investissements ont été annoncés.
“Le paysage des investissements directs étrangers (IDE) en Asie-Pacifique continue d’évoluer rapidement dans un contexte d’incertitudes économiques mondiales, de changements géopolitiques et de transformations technologiques. Bien que 2024 ait connu une certaine modération des flux d’investissement après les annonces record de 2023, la région a fait preuve d’une résilience remarquable et a maintenu sa position en tant que destination de choix pour les capitaux internationaux”, indique le rapport.
Les investisseurs s’adaptent à une “nouvelle normalité” induite par des changements durables dans les marchés mondiaux et la politique. Parmi les principaux facteurs, citons l’accélération des investissements dans l’économie numérique après la conférence COVID-19, l’importance accrue accordée à la sécurité énergétique, la restructuration de la chaîne d’approvisionnement dans un contexte de tensions géopolitiques et la généralisation des politiques industrielles.
Les experts soulignent deux tendances clés en matière d’investissement : une évaluation plus prudente des nouvelles opportunités par rapport à la vague initiale d’investissements réactifs et un ralentissement naturel du rythme d’investissement à mesure que les projets 2023 passent à la phase de mise en œuvre, les parties prenantes des entreprises surveillant de près les résultats et l’impact.
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Selon le rapport, la plupart des IDE entrants dans la région Asie-Pacifique sont allés au secteur des services, qui a représenté 40 à 50 % du total. La part des secteurs de l’extraction et de l’industrie manufacturière a fluctué.
En septembre, le secteur manufacturier représentait 41 % du total des IDE en Asie-Pacifique, tandis que le secteur des services en représentait 55 %. La part du secteur primaire est tombée à 4 % au cours des trois premiers trimestres de 2024, contre 9 % au cours de la même période en 2023.
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Bien que les métaux soient restés le premier secteur manufacturier en 2023, les investissements au cours des trois premiers trimestres de 2024 ont diminué de 61 % par rapport à la même période en 2023. Le rapport indique que cette baisse est due à l’atonie de la demande mondiale d’acier, à la chute des prix de l’acier, à l’augmentation des exportations chinoises d’acier à moindre coût et à la réduction de la consommation intérieure.
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